Stupidity, populism, and playing to the idiots? It’s evergreen.

Sep 20 2008

Where to start?

The short-selling ban that is in place from yesterday through October 2 (or later) is an abomination. Not only is it bad policy in an absolute sense, it’s made worse by the cynical hypocrisy of those who begged for it to be put into place.

It’s one thing for an amiable boob like Patrick Byrne to whine about short-sellers and how they’re killing his company. I’m willing to give Byrne some small measure of benefit of the doubt, since finance isn’t his claim to fame. But when the chairmen of the Federal Reserve and the SEC, along with the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, now Treasury Secretary, start whining out of the same hymn book, they’re not serious, not believable, and are clearly playing to the idiots in the audience.

Short selling, the act of selling shares you don’t own, with the expectation that you’ll be able to buy them back later at a price equal to or lower than the price at which you sold the. Simple, really. And it’s got nothing to do with wanting to harm the company whose shares you’ve sold short. It’s simply an expression of opinion that the shares are overvalued, for one reason or another.

Selling short, then spreading false rumors against a company is an offense for which one can be pursued in a court of law. Funny thing, though – not selling short, then spreading false rumors against a company is also an offense for which one can be pursued in a court of law. If you do the verbal algebra, it becomes clear that selling short has nothing to do with the illegality of false rumors. And the law recognizes this – selling short is, in anything approaching sane regulatory times, not illegal at all.

Selling short can occur for many reasons, in many different contexts. Everyone I’ve read focuses on bets that a stock might or should go down. I’ll go you one better. For instance, to take a random example, let’s just say that the Investment Banking group in Goldman Sachs’ Chicago office were doing a public offering of stock for a client.

Such offerings typically include an underwriter’s option for an additional 15% of the shares being offered as “the green shoe”, to cover overallocations. Since an investment bank typically has no interest, and certainly has no requirement, to be an owner of stock in the companies for which it provides underwriting, if an offering looks successful, and the demand is high enough to make exercising their option for the “green shoe”, the normal action an investment bank takes is to sell short a number of shares equal to the amount of the green shoe, knowing that they’ll be able to replace those shares with the additional 15% for overallocation. If the stock has run up in the aftermath of the offering, better still – they can sell stock that’s more expensive than the offering price, knowing full well that they can replace it at the offering price. But at a minimum, they already know the price at which they can buy the stock in the future, so this isn’t a bet that the stock will go down.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, having been the head of investment banking for Goldman Sachs’ Midwest Region (1983-1988), then managing partner of the Chicago office, followed by co-head of IB for the entire firm, can safely be presumed to know all of this.

Neither SEC Chairman Cox and Fed Chairman Bernanke has any experience in capital markets, but neither of them can assert ignorance of the role that short selling plays in the market.

And who’s been calling loudest for limitations on short selling? The investment banks, solvent and formerly-solvent:

Lehman:

Lehman executives complain that they have been singled out by hedge fund investors that are short selling — or betting against — their stock, and Mr. Fuld has called senior executives at competitor banks demanding that their employees stop criticizing Lehman.

Morgan Stanley:

The mood was far different at Morgan Stanley, which lobbied vigorously for the ban on short selling. The bank’s shares shot up 21 percent, to $27.21, on Friday. Analysts said the reprieve might be only temporary, though, because the firm’s business model still requires a big balance sheet and core base of deposits for financing.

Goldman Sachs:

…the SEC is this afternoon holding a meeting to “determine if they need to take further steps to curtail what both Mac and [Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd] Blankfein characterize as improper short selling that is really causing damage to the share price of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.” Blankfein also spoke with Cox to complain of short selling of their stock, as did New York senators Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton, according to Gasparino’s sources.

And so on. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, AIG, and a host of others, all now functionally dead as public companies, claimed loudly, with much gesticulation, that short sellers, not their crappy business models or abysmal risk management, were the reason for the drops in their stock prices.

New York’s AG Andrew Cuomo:

Likening such traders to “looters after a hurricane,” New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo Thursday said his office is investigating “a significant number” of complaints about improper short selling in shares of Lehman Bros., AIG, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other financial stocks.

Cuomo said his investigation would use the New York state Martin Act, which subjects violators to criminal as well as civil penalties, to combat the illegal practices.

“The markets need to be stabilized,” Cuomo said. “And one way to bring about such stability is to root out and deter short-selling that is based on the spread of false information.”

Sorry, Spanky – you left one class of people out: Weather forecasters before a hurricane. Deter short selling based on the spread of false information? Sure – go ahead, although there are already laws in place to do that, so knock yourself out enforcing them, with my blessing and encouragement. Disallow short selling itself, as though there’s no valid reason for a non-rumor-spreading trader to do? Utterly stupid. And impressive only to the self interested (the banks) or ill-educated (all other non-bankers who’ve complained about short selling).

Applauded only by the greedy & ignorant? Must be a great plan, then. I’ll take all this addle-pated nonsense about “gangs of people getting together to sell shares of a stock” seriously when several things also happen:

  • The same idiots decide to go after “gangs of people getting together to buy shares of a stock” (Cramer – I’m looking at you and everyone like you).
  • Someone explains to me the difference between a short seller selling a share of stock and an actual holder of the stock selling a share of stock. The market neither knows nor cares.
  • Which raises the question of what’s next? Disallowing down-ticks entirely? Disallowing any sale of the stocks of the protected 799 alleged-financial companies? Even by widows and orphans who actually hold shares? What is this, the Hotel California?

Issue Two” (please read that to yourself in John McGlaughlin’s voice, for best effect)
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Nice to see, again, that the system works

Jul 29 2008

Or, to be more correct, at least part of the system. Some of the time.

First, there was the Emperor AG and Premier Governor of New York, Eliot Spitzer, getting his, and a reasonable person could hope he’s got still more coming to him, given the pompous hypocrisy of the crusades on which he embarked before his fall.

Today’s news, however, on Alaska’s Ted Stevens, is equally satisfying to read. Charged with public corruption, and seemingly certain to be found guilty given the brazen and entitled nature with which he sought the spoils of his office, the only shame here might be that, at 86 years old, he’s unlikely to be incarcerated for the term he deserves, if at all. He’s been a national joke, most recently at least, for the Bridge to Nowhere pork fiasco, and his indictment cements his status as an embarrassment to Alaskans, Republicans, the Senate, and Americans.

Most people think that there’s a general presumption of innocence in America, but that’s only true within the court system, and in the issues that surround the court. I’m happy to report that my odds of serving on any jury of Mr. Stevens’ peers are zero, and I’m neither the judge nor the prosecutor in his case, so I owe him no such presumption.

He’s dirty, and the only thing better than having him indicted and removed from office would be to step back forty years, and take he and all other grandees of his sort out of the political process entirely. Glad-handing thieves, selling the citizens’ best interests for their personal aggrandizement, are among the lowest forms of life in America.



That monetary hammer I mentioned?

Jul 19 2008

In a post yesterday, (just below), I mentioned the difficulties in the Pakistani stock market, and the related destruction at the Karachi stock exchange. I contrasted, in a brief and cursory manner, the market there (and the reaction to its fall) to the market here in the US (and the general lack of reaction to its fall).

I also asserted that most of the tools available to the Pakistani government for reacting to the problem are available in other markets, and that they generally don’t work, because they don’t actually address the problems, instead focusing on the symptoms.

Finally, I mentioned in passing that the solution that seems most likely to help resolve matters can be found in monetary policy. It’s the one that everyone has avoided, though they surely have thought of it. Fed chairman Bernanke has begun nibbling around the edges of monetary policy, but may not, based on recent past history, be able to pull the trigger on any actual implementation – huffing and puffing that you really dislike inflation isn’t the same as, say, Paul Volcker (with the full support of Ronald Reagan, and not caring at all what Wall Street wanted) jacking interest rates to the moon and killing inflation dead.

Monetary policy is a complex subject, and one at which I’d hardly claim to be an expert. The meat and potatoes are simple – make money too easy to borrow and people will treat it cheaply, spend it too easily, and invest carelessly (think “drunken sailors”). Result? A debased and devalued currency. Follow that with a commodities supply/demand crunch, and the devaluation of a currency can spiral, as crucial commodities, priced in dollars, increase in price due to the decreases in the real value of the dollar, encouraging (if the Fed is gutless enough) further loosening of credit, further real devaluation of the currency (now itself effectively valued in “barrels of oil”, “tons of iron”, “Euros”, &c).

Silly “stimulus checks”, of the sort pushed by Congress this year and shamefully not vetoed by Mr. Bush, had a one-time effect on spending, which makes sense – they were a one-time return of tax dollars, disproportionate to actual taxes paid, and could reasonably be expected by anyone with a memory extending longer than six months ago to have had precisely the anemic and worthless effect that they did. Undaunted, Speaker Nancy Pelosi thinks (or at least claims to think) that all we need is $50 billion more in such stimulus. Which proves at a minimum only that her memory extends even less into the past that the rest of the nitwits who voted for the somewhat politically astute, but utterly economically absurd notion of the initial stimulus.

Politically astute – why only “somewhat”? Because one-time stimulus is politically astute only if one is trying to impress those who lack mental acuity. On one view of how we might measure such a thing, elementary statistics, something close to 50% of all people have less than average intelligence. Or, as George Carlin put it:

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

Of course that one-time stimulus seems helpful, at the time, and if you don’t think too deeply about it, to have someone handing out money. Better yet if it’s someone else’s money. And if it’s done in a crafty enough way, those same people who don’t think deep thoughts might be gulled into missing the realization that if the money’s better in our hands than the government’s during these current difficulties, why not every year?

But enough of that – I could go on in (small) circles about monetary policy, but have already devolved into fiscal and tax policy, so to keep this from turning into more of a rant than it already is, I’d like to tie this post back to the one from yesterday, and I have found the perfect foil with which to do so.

In an article in the Saturday July 19, 2008 Wall Street Journal, the always-readable James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer asks “Why No Outrage?” (subhead: “Through history, outrageous financial behavior has been met with outrage. But today Wall Street’s damaging recklessness has been met with near-silence, from a too-tolerant populace”)

No, he’s not suggesting that we man the barricades, pitchforks in hand, Molotov cocktails at the ready. But he does make the easy case that things haven’t worked out as well as hoped in our current system of carrots, sticks, checks, and balances.

“Raise less corn and more hell,” Mary Elizabeth Lease harangued Kansas farmers during America’s Populist era, but no such voice cries out today. America’s 21st-century financial victims make no protest against the Federal Reserve’s policy of showering dollars on the people who would seem to need them least.

Long ago and far away, a brilliant man of letters floated an idea. To stop a financial panic cold, he proposed, a central bank should lend freely, though at a high rate of interest. Nonsense, countered a certain hard-headed commercial banker. Such a policy would only instigate more crises by egging on lenders and borrowers to take more risks. The commercial banker wrote clumsily, the man of letters fluently. It was no contest.

The doctrine of activist central banking owes much to its progenitor, the Victorian genius Walter Bagehot. But Bagehot might not recognize his own idea in practice today. Late in the spring of 2007, American banks paid an average of 4.35% on three-month certificates of deposit. Then came the mortgage mess, and the Fed’s crash program of interest-rate therapy. Today, a three-month CD yields just 2.65%, or little more than half the measured rate of inflation. It wasn’t the nation’s small savers who brought down Bear Stearns, or tried to fob off subprime mortgages as “triple-A.” Yet it’s the savers who took a pay cut — and the savers who, today, in the heat of a presidential election year, are holding their tongues.

Possibly, there aren’t enough thrifty voters in the 50 states to constitute a respectable quorum. But what about the rest of us, the uncounted improvident? Have we, too, not suffered at the hands of what used to be called The Interests? Have the stewards of other people’s money not made a hash of high finance? Did they not enrich themselves in boom times, only to pass the cup to us, the taxpayers, in the bust? Where is the people’s wrath?

(continues)

No calls for violence there, no stoning or burning either. But he does wonder why people just accept this asinine state of affairs.

So do I.

Half-baked solutions, designed to appeal only to the stupid, will not solve the problem, and will actively and quickly make it worse. Freely available money, ala Bagehot, but at near-punitively high interest rates, can make it possible for the blockages in our financial system to work themselves out.

The alternative, where the Fed (and the implicit “Bernanke Put“, and let’s not forget the “Greenspan Put“, either) continues to think that Wall Street is more important than Main Street, hasn’t worked and won’t. (Candidate Obama has used that Wall Street/Main Street formulation in his stump speeches; the difference between his use and mine might be that I actually understand what it means, and why it’s a crucial failure in our system).

It’s probably best that I’ve never been a combat medic, because I think that a quick bleed, with full understanding of where the blood is likely to gush, is preferable to a five year drip, or worse, a five year internal bleed of reasonably knowable but still-indeterminate origin.

And if that bleed (the quick gusher) occurs on Wall Street, then so be it. Chasing the dollar down to $250 per barrel of oil/$250 per metric ton of iron ore/$0.25 per Euro seems hardly worth it, when the sole reason for doing so is to continue the pretense that what’s good for Wall Street is good for America.

The rot’s got to stop before the economy can properly heal. Half-measures will continue not to do.

See also:
   WSJ – Stupidity and the State, and Stupidity and the State, Part II
   NYT – Given a Shovel, Americans Dig Deeper Into Debt



So that’s what an unsophisticated investor looks like.

Jul 18 2008

(The excitable investors, that is, not Pakistanis in general)

Clues can be found in a Marketwatch article from yesterday evening:

EMERGING MARKETS REPORT
Investors riot in Pakistan as market tumbles

Benchmark down for 15th straight session; loses 27.5% this year so far
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Popular anger over tumbling equity prices erupted in Pakistan on Thursday, underscoring the difficulties regulators face in attempting to prop up falling markets as turbulence in many of the world’s financial markets continues unabated.

The turmoil in Pakistan comes at a time when several emerging markets are considering market stabilization measures, while regulators in the United States are moving to limit short selling and speculation in the oil market.

Regulators in China have signaled their intention to stabilize the local market, which became the worst performer among global markets this week. India has suspended futures trading in several commodities.
In Pakistan on Thursday, more than 200 protestors attacked the Karachi Stock Exchange, the country’s main equity market, and demanded a temporary closure of the market to curb further drops in share prices, the BBC reported.

Smaller protests took place in Islamabad and Lahore.

[continues]

For reasons not so easy to articulate, I find it breathtaking that such a reaction makes any sense at all to these aggrieved investors.

Capital markets wizards at work

Capital markets wizards at work

What, I ask myself, is the logical conclusion they’d expect here? To be offered their money back? By whom? With or without smoke-stains and cinders?

Are the investors in emerging Asian markets really so unsophisticated (Albania comes to mind, among others) that they’ll buy anything, at any price? I suppose so – this has happened throughout history, in Asia, the US, and elsewhere. But in the majority of those other cases that come to mind, when it all goes wrong, the populace doesn’t seem to automatically think that all can be made better by burning buildings down, do they?

Not only are such reactions destructive (to property and to society in general), they’re also of no use in resolving the problem.

Some folks, I suppose, should be completely protected from themselves, and prohibited from taking actions they might later regret. Much the same, I further suppose, as special needs kids are sometimes not allowed out of the house without a styrofoam-lined helmet.

Such paternalism would be troubling to those of us who feel able to take responsibility for our own actions, but, by definition, we’re also not the sort of people who’d think burning down the stock exchange (which, really, is just a building, and had no effect on the stupid prices people were willing to stupidly pay for securities, right?) was a great idea. The Pakistani authorities’ “styrofoam helmet” for the markets includes circuit breakers to dampen price volatility, short-selling limitations, and a “market stabilization fund”. Much the same set of tools has been used by other governments over the years, with little beneficial result.

The connection made in the original article to US commodity (primarily oil) markets and allegations of skullduggery in shorting of financial behemoths such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman, et al is apt, though the differences between the two situations are meaningful. When you add in the other bugbear, the rapidly deflating asset (real estate) bubble, within the US, the focus is on systemic risk (in the financial behemoths) and pure political grandstanding (regarding the oil futures markets and residential real estate), but surely, a minimal number of buildings will be burnt to express disappointment.

The point the two situations have in common is the ultimate futility of efforts to game the market excessively, from either the regulators’ or the speculators’ side of the table. Market stabilization fund? Ask George Soros what he thinks of the efficacy of such devices.

Market volatility curbs? They are a band-aid solution, i.e. no solution at all. If the limits are hit on a given day (particularly down days), the selling frenzy can just as easily be pent-up until the next day. And the day after. In cases where limits on asset price increases would be helpful to halt bubbles of speculative excess (tech stocks in the 1990s, real estate more recently), the proper method isn’t price movement limitations, but instead should be monetary, in the form of interest rates and margin requirements.

Where does it all end? Not in violence, and not in wanton destruction of real property. Too many more gimmicks, such as stimulus checks designed to gull the electorate into thinking all’s well, or handouts to flagrantly uncreditworthy home buyers, and the road to the end of this mess gets steeper and more slippery. Oddly enough, that monetary hammer mentioned above, in the form of interest rates, can play a big part in solving the current woes, though it won’t solve them quickly.

Devaluation of the dollar is the flip side of cheap credit, and while dollar devaluation is a subject for another day, reducing speculative excesses by making money more expensive to deploy in speculation, whether it be in commodities, real estate, or the financial markets seems likely to be the only path out of the current unpleasantness.

If that turns out to be the case, many will feel the pinch. Fortunately, the stoics who make up a lot of the American population, sophisticated or not, seem more likely to suck it up, endure the pinch, and exit the other side better off than they are today. An optimist would further hope that this was all done without the government stupidly taxing the starch out of the economy, but if the government does so, perhaps the government after them will repair the damage, and reap the delayed benefits.

Regardless of government policies, the flame-throwing non-sophisticates of the Pakistani markets may not fare better nearly as soon.



Prognostication Perils

Jun 15 2008

Based on the events of Friday afternoon, I’m reminded of the only phrase I can recall from Nancy Reagan’s tenure as First Lady: “Just say no”.

About an hour before Wall Street closed for the week, I got a call from an old friend who’s an equity analyst for an east coast hedge fund. He wanted to know whether it was possible that there was any truth to the rumor he’d heard about a merger in the waste industry.

That merger? Republic Services and Allied Waste Industries.

While it turns out that I should have just said no, that I had no idea, and moved on to other matters, I first told him that I’d heard no such rumor. Not that all, or any, rumors run through me before they’re generally available to the rest of the populace, mind you, but I do have some experience in the waste industry, including some related to M&A activity. So his question wasn’t out of place, my specific ignorance of this rumor notwithstanding.

I thought about it for a bit, and then, while allowing that of course anything’s possible, told him that this was highly unlikely, for a lot of reasons. For instance, have a look at these two track records:

The Beast


Beauty

One of those two report cards is decidedly not like the other, yet this is billed as a “merger of equals”. Hey – we’re in the 21st Century – so we’ve got to say whatever makes the kids feel good about themselves, I guess. Everyone gets a trophy! I realize, of course, that they’re roughly equal in market cap, with Allied being the bigger of the two by several hundred million dollars, but that market cap was smaller than RSG’s before the rumor of a deal leaked out, and with good reason.

Feel free to have a look for yourself – RSG has outperformed most of the waste industry by a noticeable margin in the last five years.
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Stupid investment theses, poorly executed

May 6 2008

In an item in the May 5, 2008 WSJ, I saw the “Fund Track” column, by Daisy Maxey, entitled “Democratic Booster Blue Fund Group Has Been Singing the Blues Lately

The focus of the story was on a small Washington DC based fund that’s done poorly of late.

Blue Fund Group is having a rough year.

Blue Investment Management LLC, the fund group’s Washington, D.C., investment adviser, has liquidated Blue Small Cap Fund, which managed less than $1 million.

It is now in the process of changing the name of its Blue Large Cap Fund, which has a little more than $10 million in assets, to, simply, Blue Fund. So far this year, that fund has underperformed both its large-cap growth category and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, according to Chicago investment-research firm Morningstar Inc.

Odd, that. Not the results, particularly, but the fact that the story appears at all. “What’s the problem?”, I wondered, and what makes this tiddler of a fund worthy of coverage in the WSJ? I read on…

In addition, in a rather odd development, $9.5 million of the large-cap fund’s assets were invested recently by a trust that has said it may hedge its bets on some of the fund’s holdings.

Blue Investment Management was formed in 2006 to invest in companies that “act blue” and “give blue,” those that engage in practices consistent with progressive values and give the majority of their political contributions to Democratic candidates.

Following a proprietary managed index of U.S. companies, the large-cap fund invests in “blue” companies in the S&P 500 index, while the small-cap offering had invested in “blue” companies in the Russell 2000 index.

Additional info, according to an April 2007 article at Morningstar:

The Blue funds (Blue Large Cap and Blue Small Cap), launched late last year, invest in companies that give a majority of their political contributions to Democratic candidates and organizations, in addition to passing various standard social screens. There are no funds focused specifically on Republican-leaning companies, though the Free Enterprise Action fund (FEAOX), launched two years ago, promotes free enterprise and opposes shareholder resolutions that might dampen companies’ profitability, including most SRI-type proposals. Also, the Camco Investors Fund (CAMCX) specifically uses socially conservative screening criteria, as do several of the religious funds we looked at in our earlier column, notably the Ave Maria and Timothy Plan funds.

Quintuple odd.

No “Republican-focused” funds? Because nobody would buy them, I presume, preferring instead to just focus on companies well-situated to make money.

Aside from the fact that the new biggest investor in Blue Funds may choose to hedge its bet, taking contrary positions to that of its now-majority owned fund, the slack-jawed investment thesis behind the fund is a real eye opener.

How is it, I wonder, that someone was able to correlate the political contribution tendencies of companies, and then to target them for investment? Wait – I’m not done yet: Of course it’s simple, though a bit labor-intensive, to do such a thing, but having done such a thing, how could someone have done such a bang up job of choosing a thesis with a correlation apparently approaching -1? And then put client money behind such a spastic idea? And still slept at night?

It’s possible to grotesquely overthink investment theses, even when, unlike the strategists of the Blue Fund, you leave political proclivities out of the mix. Running such a tiny fund, and apparently running it nearly into the ground, causing closure of the “small cap” side of the fund, abandonment of the “large cap” moniker on the other half, and causing the new largest investor (sort of) to consider hedging its exposure to your attempts at splitting atoms with your mind (and political views) seems like an item one would leave off one’s resume.

The same goes for all “Socially Responsible Investing”, if you ask me, not that you did.

Unless, of course, the goal isn’t to make money at all.

Granted, it’s been a tough year in the markets, but it’s not been impossible to make money. For comparative purposes, one of the things I do on a daily basis, with a very small portion of my time, is participate in running a proprietary hedge fund. The assets under management seem similar to those reported for the Blue Fund family by the WSJ, yet our focus is solely on making profits. And overall, we’re up more than 40% so far this year.

It’s not impossible, and properly done, it’s not even particularly difficult. The difference might be that there’s no ideology behind our investment choices, and no attempts at claiming correlations that don’t exist in the real world.

There’s nothing wrong with social, or political, responsibility. Neither has much of anything to do with investing, however. I don’t invest to help those in need or to advance a political point of view – I invest to make profits. To help those in need, I give to the Red Cross. And to advance a political point of view, I vote.

In investing, as in many other things, avoiding confusion about why you’re doing it is a fundamental prerequisite to being even mildly competent.



What’s Italian for “chutzpah”?

Apr 14 2008

Via a WSJ email alert of a few minutes ago:

NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal

April 14, 2008

Conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi appeared to clinch Italy’s national election Monday, making it likely that the media mogul will return as prime minister for a third time. Berlusconi’s center-right Freedom People party was set to get 164 seats in the upper house of parliament, the senate, while the Democratic Party of center-left rival Walter Veltroni was expected to win 139 seats, early projections showed. Though votes were still being counted, Veltroni called Berlusconi to concede defeat.

The election was called in a rush after the previous government, headed by center-left Prime Minister Romano Prodi, collapsed in January after only 20 months in office.

Assuming that the election plays out on present form, I’m not sure which I find funnier, Veltroni (about whom I’ve nothing bad to say) calling for concession when clearly things aren’t going his way, or the fact that the reporter was able to write the story with a straight face.

This, of course, brings to mind Hillary Clinton’s suggestion that Barack Obama would look good in Vice President’s shorts.

And now that I think about it, it also brings forth an old Monty Python skit.

(from 3 minutes in, actually, but the entire skit is a classic)



Too clever by half?

Mar 27 2008

This question might apply both to the Marketwatch website and to the principals in the Clear Channel LBO saga (details at Dan Primack’s always enjoyable peHub).

First, though, Marketwatch – their blast email message a bit ago, was entitled:

Clear Channel Communications: Judge orders banks to fund $19 billion buyout

As this is a subject that interests me, and I happened to be up and at the computer when it arrived, I clicked on it, only to find the title now was:

Clear Channel: Judge grants restraining order against banks

Which actually makes much more sense, and congrats to them on the quick kick-save. The first headline was so intriguingly worded as to be downright inflammatory (unintentionally, on the inflammatory part, I’m sure). The case went before the judge only within the last 12 hours or so, and it would seem to me (a non-lawyer) that an order to fund a $19 billion deal, under terms that everyone seems to think will start out causing a large hole in the pockets of the funding banks, would at least take longer to arrive at.

From Heidi Moore’s WSJ Deal Blog entry of yesterday afternoon, “Clear Channel: What Would Yoda Say?”, a plausible argument that neither the PE group (THL & Bain) nor the banks want to carry the deal forward:

In this upside down world, it’s easy to see doubts behind every negotiation. Blackstone Group, for instance, pointed to apparently onerous regulatory requirements as a reason it was wary of the buyout of ADS. Last week, the OCC clarified its stance. Now many people are watching Blackstone to see if that was enough.

Similarly, the buyout firms and lenders involved in Clear Channel are arguing over the terms of the debt financing. Does their inability to agree indicate a healthy negotiation, or a passive-aggressive attempt to spike the deal without suffering reputational consequences?

Sometimes contracts encourage parties to take the fight as far as possible. Walker told us, “One of the ways that the buying group can argue that it has satisified its obligations is to bring a lawsuit against the lenders. Once they satisfy that, their only obligation is to pay the termination fee, not to close the deal.”

By that playbook, the penultimate act by the banks and PE firms was taken yesterday, and a reasonable person might have concluded that CCU was well and truly a dead deal.

Whoops. The Texas court, at least (there’s a separate suit in New York) has thrown a spanner into the works, and might well, before it’s over, force a financing camel through the eye of this particular deal needle.

The commenters on Ms Moore’s blog entry are almost unfailing in their desire to say she was wrong about the intent of THL and Bain, but a reasonable person could say the jury’s still out on that.

And I do.

Addendum: In today’s PE Week Wire, Dan Primack adds:

In case you haven’t heard, Clear Channel and its prospective buyers – Bain Capital and Thomas H. Lee Partners – late yesterday sued six banks for refusing to fund the protracted $19.5 billion deal. The suits were filed in New York and Texas, with the primary difference being that the plaintiffs asked for the death penalty in Texas. No, wait, I’m being told that’s not correct. The primary practical difference is actually that CCU is being represented in the Texas suit by Joe Jamail, who represented Penzoil in a suit against M&A backtracker Texaco. The result was a jury award that essentially bankrupted Texaco, so the banks should be more than a bit concerned about that one.

(emphasis mine)

I do so like a clever turn of a phrase.

It was only after reading his piece that I realized Joe Jamail was involved, and I find myself questioning whether the addition of Jamail should cause any tremors, based on something he did half-a-life ago. He’s fast approaching 200 years old (though, admittedly, no faster than I am), and has had at least one big case in recent years that I’m aware of which ended badly enough for him that he fired the client rather than appealing.



Psst! There’s a conspiracy!

Mar 4 2008

A conspiracy of dunces, that is, spreading conspiracy theories.

Shockingly, to me as I’m sure it is to you, this one comes from a guy who’s a buddy of Ron Paul, (“R”, TX).

Via Dan Primack’s PE Week Wire:

The candidate is Murray Sabrin, a university professor who once ran on the Libertarian ticket for governor of New Jersey. He’s now running for U.S. Senate as a Republican, and last week received an endorsement from political soul-mate Ron Paul. More specifically, Paul sent out a so-called “Money Bomb” for Sabrin, which is basically an email asking supporters to immediately make an online donation. The idea is to raise lots of money in a single day, and then use the windfall as evidence of growing grass-roots support.

He got his money bomb, because the Paul-\bots are nothing if not slavish in their devotion to the directives of their jingoistic hero, Dr. Ron Paul. And it blew up Sabrin’s site, but good.

Soon after Paul lit the fuse, however, the Sabrin website crashed. It and some associated email accounts were down for approximately 16 hours, before being put back online. The campaign was furious. It had discussed the expected traffic surge with Network Solutions beforehand, and that it had been assured the site would be fine.

Or not, as it turned out – Network Solutions isn’t responsible for design and coding errors in its clients’ sites, and Sabrin’s site was buggy.

This is where it gets just bizarre. The Sabrin campaign seemed to have two choices at this point: Either accept that the crash was caused by its own coding mistake, or blame Network Solutions for having faulty technology. But it went for an unexpected third avenue: Accuse Network Solutions of taking down the website for partisan political purposes.

Which of course Sabrin’s campaign did. Utterly implausibly, but there you have it. For details, click the link to Dan’s story – it’s a good read.

As a larger issue, no wonder people are falling serially in love with Barack Obama – he promises, in some feathery and highly general way, to deliver us from this sort of functional retardation.

It’s all crap, of course – not specifically because it’s Mr. Obama (a fascinating & intelligent gentleman, good with a turn of a phrase, though married to an apparently divisive and demogogic wife and devoid of either the experience or anything that passes for coherent strategy to, you know, actually run the country). It’s crap because he’s a politician, and they’re all full of crap, as they pretty much have to be in order to aspire to the position they seek.

If Mr. Obama’s, or anyone else’s, putative “war on cynicism” had a ghost of a chance of succeeding (and it does not), one of the first things they would propose would be that, every time someone trots out a ludicrous conspiracy theory designed solely to motivate the lowest quartiles of the IQ spectrum, the government could declare a moment of silence, followed by a moment of pointing at that person and laughing.

Hey, a boy can dream.



Happy second birthday…

Feb 13 2008

…to one of my favorite sites, Going Private. Among the best written and most enjoyably read sites I frequent, the only problem I’d cite is that its author doesn’t have time to write several posts per day.

And when she must, for a variety of surely-good reasons, let extended periods pass without new material, I find myself almost pining for the next post.

Which is really rather sad, now that I see it written out there, above. But no matter – I’m a big fan of her work.

…1.34 million page views, 401 posts, 86 trackbacks, 26.3 points of lifetime IRR net fees, 18 transactions, 14 date requests, 8 ambiguous invitations to coffee, 5 marriage proposals, 4.5 death threats, 4 threatening legal letters, 3 cities, 2 years, 1.5 promotions and 1 love letter later…

Of course, this post will effect the 87th (or 88th, or 89th…) trackback for her site. And if I were certain she actually existed, I’d probably bump her up to her 9th ambiguous invitation to coffee, just to hear how in the world she’s been able to craft, in addition to the business-specific but impersonal and well written posts, such an interesting body of obfuscated writing about supposedly real situations.

I don’t have cause to doubt the reality of her subject matter – far from it, as many of the events she chronicles have analogues, if not doppelgangers, in companies I’ve observed up close and personal. How such a widely read site can relate the stories she does and still hedge the risk of being de-cloaked remains a fascination for me.